The Long-run Impact of Sentiment on Stock Returns∗
نویسنده
چکیده
We examine the explanatory and predictive power of fundamental macroeconomic and behavioral factors with regards to stock returns of the Dow Jones Industrials Index. With a novel sentiment dataset from over 3.6 million Reuters news articles, we nd signi cant correlations between Reuters sentiment and stock returns. We show with vector autoregression and error correction models that Reuters sentiment can explain and predict changes in stock returns better than macroeconomic factors. Considering positive and negative sections of Reuters sentiment, we nd that negative sentiment performs much better in simple trading strategies to predict stock returns than positive sentiment.
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